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The following is also my column this week in AdAge.
Last time in this space I outlined my conviction
that five years from now all media will either be completely digital or
well on its way to becoming intangible. Two weeks later, the trend has
accelerated.
Many are questioning the future of major newspaper companies who,
faced with declining print ad revenues, are putting themselves up for
sale or filing for bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the Amazon Kindle is sold out
until February and book publishers like Random House are racing to
embrace the iPhone as the next big growth market.
Even if you don't share my belief that all media will be digital by
2014, the migration is inevitable and it will have a major impact for
advertisers. Here are three trends to watch.
Reach Devaluation
Although advertisers
increasingly are exploring other metrics, i.e. engagement and
reputation, reach still rules -- at least for now. Unfortunately, reach
is slowly losing its value as media consumption increasingly moves
deeper into the digital realm.
Where in the analog age we might be loyal to a given media brand,
today's consumers are far more agnostic. We're more likely to dip into
an array of online sources including traditional news sites and blogs -- and often via search or social networks.
All of this diminishes the entire concept of reach. After all, if
a site claims that it reaches millions but they're all just drive-bys,
do such figures truly matter? In the years ahead, advertisers will
rethink reach and not pay nearly as much for it as they did when they
bought media based on a rate base and/or circulation. This will create
tremendous disruption for media companies as they have to shift to new
ways to prove their value.
Just-in-time Creative
Despite
all of the advances in digital marketing, ad creative remains largely
static once it's placed. It doesn't change based on news or memes like
a mood ring might. But that's about to change.
As digital channels supplant tangible formats it will usher in
innovation from vendors, the media and advertisers. The lines between
widgets and banners will blur as creative becomes more utilitarian. Ads
will change on the fly based on preset conversation and search data
triggers. They will more appropriately reflect pop culture and the
"memes" of the day and therefore be a lot more engaging and relevant.
Further, as consumers continue their transitory ways, advertisers
will be able to better optimize the creative that runs across different
sites. Ads will "talk" to each other so that marketers can identify
consumers who have already been exposed to their creative on other
sites and then serve up something more relevant to reinforce the
initial impression.
Google Unlocks the Value of Back Catalog Content
Finally, there's no denying Google's power. It's becoming the primary
gateway to the web for both consumers and the digital marketers. What's
particularly noteworthy is how Google is digitizing old physical media.
For example Google Book Search now incorporates a vast print
magazine archive, including back issues of "New York Magazine." Google
News has likewise digitized old newspapers and Google Image Search has
done the same with the complete "Life Magazine" photo archive online.
Media companies will increasingly partner with Google to bring
their entire back catalog of content online. Right now these are not
monetized with ads. But Google will surely layer contextual search ads
into these databases and unlock the value of all of this content. This
will offer advertisers all kinds of new opportunities and also throw
publishers a lifeline as they make the transition from atoms to bits.
Maybe there's no money it. Maybe there's no love to be gained from it from bloggers. But blog search is in a pitiful state right now. There's room for someone to come along and innovate.
Now you can argue that blog search doesn't matter as much these days. Twitter and Friendfeed both have strong search capes. The main Google engine scoops up blogs as fast as Elvis ate peanut butter and banana sandwiches. In addition, paid tools like Radian6 do a very nice job. But, darn it, I grew accustomed to having good blog search FOR FREE. And now it appears to be gone.
Here's a rundown of the contenders and what's currently right/wrong with each. Also, I put each site through its paces by tracking links to my recent post on WIkipedia Mobile.
Technorati - Link searches pull up both blog rolls and mentions. Please give me a choice. Technorati seems to be more focused on rolling up bloggers into ad networks rather than on core search. They are leading right now in results, however. (Links to my post: 18. RSS feeds? Busted)
Google Blog Search - For awhile, Google gave me everything I wanted. Fast results on both keywords and link searches. But then a few weeks ago the plumbing broke. Now it's practically useless because it alerts me anytime a blogger who has me on their blogroll updates his/her site. (Links to my post: 9)
Twingly - They offer spam free results. And they look promising so far. But when you put Twingly through its paces, it is very weak on results. (Links to my post: 4)
Sphere - No longer a blog search engine. Off my list.
IceRocket - This might be the true dark horse. It's slowly been improving and it's got a spiffy new design. Note how each link shows you other posts that are referencing it. Smart. Mark Cuban may have a hit here after all. However, IceRocket Trends is currently down. (Links to my post: 14)
BlogPulse: I stopped using this site circa 2006. It has some nice features, but it's not working for me now. (Links to my post: 5)
Ask.com: I always forget about these guys. Their blog search engine is pretty good. Unfortunately, they include my own site in the search results. (Links to my post: 9. Bloglines, owned by Ask, turns up the same)
Bloggers, what are you using? Leave your thoughts in the comments. Are there any I missed? I am giving IceRocket a serious look again because they seem to be catching up.
Although home grown alternatives have been around for awhile now, Wikipedia recently launched its own official mobile site at http://mobile.wikipedia.org/. The site is very basic, which is exactly what mobile users will want it to be. It's also available in several languages.
There's also a link on the WIkipedia Mobile home page for a feature called Spoken Wikipedia. The project will presumably play article recordings on mobile devices.
Young Urban Professional