How Increasingly Intangible Media Will Bring Tangible Benefits

The following is also my column this week in AdAge.

Last time in this space I outlined my conviction
that five years from now all media will either be completely digital or
well on its way to becoming intangible. Two weeks later, the trend has
accelerated.

Many are questioning the future of major newspaper companies who,
faced with declining print ad revenues, are putting themselves up for
sale or filing for bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the Amazon Kindle is sold out
until February and book publishers like Random House are racing to
embrace the iPhone as the next big growth market.

Even if you don't share my belief that all media will be digital by
2014, the migration is inevitable and it will have a major impact for
advertisers. Here are three trends to watch.

Reach Devaluation

Although advertisers
increasingly are exploring other metrics, i.e. engagement and
reputation, reach still rules -- at least for now. Unfortunately, reach
is slowly losing its value as media consumption increasingly moves
deeper into the digital realm.

Where in the analog age we might be loyal to a given media brand,
today's consumers are far more agnostic. We're more likely to dip into
an array of online sources including traditional news sites and blogs  -- and often via search or social networks.

All of this diminishes the entire concept of reach. After all, if
a site claims that it reaches millions but they're all just drive-bys,
do such figures truly matter? In the years ahead, advertisers will
rethink reach and not pay nearly as much for it as they did when they
bought media based on a rate base and/or circulation. This will create
tremendous disruption for media companies as they have to shift to new
ways to prove their value.

Just-in-time Creative

Despite
all of the advances in digital marketing, ad creative remains largely
static once it's placed. It doesn't change based on news or memes like
a mood ring might. But that's about to change.

As digital channels supplant tangible formats it will usher in
innovation from vendors, the media and advertisers. The lines between
widgets and banners will blur as creative becomes more utilitarian. Ads
will change on the fly based on preset conversation and search data
triggers. They will more appropriately reflect pop culture and the
"memes" of the day and therefore be a lot more engaging and relevant.

Further, as consumers continue their transitory ways, advertisers
will be able to better optimize the creative that runs across different
sites. Ads will "talk" to each other so that marketers can identify
consumers who have already been exposed to their creative on other
sites and then serve up something more relevant to reinforce the
initial impression.

Google Unlocks the Value of Back Catalog Content

Finally, there's no denying Google's power. It's becoming the primary
gateway to the web for both consumers and the digital marketers. What's
particularly noteworthy is how Google is digitizing old physical media.

For example Google Book Search now incorporates a vast print
magazine archive, including back issues of "New York Magazine." Google
News has likewise digitized old newspapers and Google Image Search has
done the same with the complete "Life Magazine" photo archive online.

Media companies will increasingly partner with Google to bring
their entire back catalog of content online. Right now these are not
monetized with ads. But Google will surely layer contextual search ads
into these databases and unlock the value of all of this content. This
will offer advertisers all kinds of new opportunities and also throw
publishers a lifeline as they make the transition from atoms to bits.

Comments

[Jeff Janer]

Specific to advertising, and above and beyond the line blurring between widgets and banners, another way to provide tangible benefit is for the ad unit itself to be re-structured into the form that someone can use (not just linking to a microsite or website). For example, upon clicking an ad for a restaurant - the user should be able to capture, save and share all of the restaurant's particulars, including the ability to read reviews and make a reservation.

[etorsten]

Good article, but there will be one trend that can combine the three trends you identified here:a good and smart targeting solution.

1. with intelligent targeting publishers and adnetworks can solve the devaluation of reach2. ads will be more user centric and relevant3. Google and others are working on profiling every user (look at theri newest project Google Friend Connect).

This (e.g. predictive targeting) will be another major trend in the years to come.