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« Seeing the World Through Other People's Social Eyes | Main | Ten Common Phrases That Could Soon Be History »
Thursday
Nov192009

The Apple "Tablet" and Chrome OS are Meaningless - the Phone is the Future of Computing 





If you're paying any attention to the techosphere today there are two stories dominating the headlines. Both involve non-shipping products.


First, Google showed off the first demo of its Chrome OS. Download Squad does a nice job breaking it down....


"So what exactly is Chrome OS? It's an operating system based on a web browser called... Google Chrome. The idea is that you won't have to (or be able to) install a single application directly on your PC. Rather, all of your apps will be run from the web and all of your data will be stored in the cloud."


Second, a mythical unicorn called the Apple tablet, which I don't believe exists - at least anymore, is rumored to have slipped to late 2010. Like Google Wave the "iTablet" doesn't solve problems so I can't be bullish about it - yet. Ian Paul seems to be the lone voice of reason ...


"These rumors are getting so ridiculous that I think it's time we accepted the truth: the Apple tablet is dead; in fact it probably never existed."


So why do I think these stories are meaningless? Simple. Your phone, my phone - any smartphone - will become our primary portable computers long before these two products catch on in the mainstream. For the more adventurous among us, it's already happening. Chris Rawson writes about 33 products his iPhone made obsolete. It's not just about the iPhone either. Any smartphone - Android, Palm (a client), Blackberry, WinMo - will soon do double duty as PCs, turning all the above two products into vaporware. 


Why? Simple. Moore's Law. Already an 64gb iPod Touch has enough on-board storage to easily hold two operating systems, OS X and OS X mobile. Apple is even billing it as a pocket computer. As processor speeds increase and full graphics systems get embedded onto single chips, the phones will soon be able to embody a PC experience as soon as they get near a flat screen TV and a keyboard. Some data will be locally stored but the rest will be in clouds - either your personal cloud or your employers. Want a clamshell keyboard and screen like a laptop? No problem, soon we'll see "dumb shells" that encase phones so they can do more on the go.


So take today's news with a grain of salt. The phones are going to be where the action is for the vast majority of users. It's good enough. And the pace of change in mobile will be rapid.

Reader Comments (40)

SteveAs soon as battery life improves we'll be there. But, when an iPhone shows me the 20% battery message after only 3.5 hours of hard core use we have a problem.Adam

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAdam Kmiec

@Adam sounds like many a laptop. We have an expectation that phone batteries should last longer. Still, I can't disagree. I carry two Duracell USB chargers with me wherever I go.

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSteve Rubel

Steve, getting a bit carried away there! Netbooks are saving the PC industry at the moment and each one of those purchases could have been an iTouch or iPhone. Why didn't consumers choose those devices? Physical size. It's our own physical interface (fingers and eyesight) that ultimately determine what products we use for what purpose and in this respect, no two people are the same and for a good many, a smartphone is just too small as a genuine mobile computer.Chrome OS is a fundamentally different approach that removes Moore from one side of the equation. It's all about web-based apps with very little need to have significant processing power or storage at the consumer-end. It's about leaving your stuff in the cloud not taking it everywhere with you.This is where (generic) tablets fit in. Your own in-home internet kiosk, where you can get your email, look-up the weather, watch a tv on Hulu, listen to Pandora, view your photos on Flickr, catch-up with friends on Facebook all on low-cost, low-energy hardware.Whilst consolidation will take place where devices are fighting for the same space (such as the pocket or handbag) I think there will be a general trend for niche devices that solve a particular audiences problem at the lowest cost possible. If anything, perhaps it's the common old PC whose days are numbered.

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterChris Knowles

@Chris I agree form factor matters. That's why phones plugged into dumb shells is a big deal coming.

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSteve Rubel

I like the idea of "dumb shells" - I can envisions snapping my iphone into a port which then lights up my dumb shell screen and keyboard... with 3rd party products offering customizable dumbshells. Genius.

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterClint McManaman

I agree with Steve - I see my cell phone being replacing my desktop in the not-too-distant future. As far as the screen, battery and "dumb shells" - here's how I see it playing out:When I get to my desk I set my iPhone (for example) down on a wireless charging station. It automatically pairs with a keyboard, mouse and monitor and switches to a desktop operating system. While "docked", all phone functionality can be done through the desktop OS.When I pick up the handset it automatically switches to the phone OS, fully charged and ready to go.Thoughts?

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterDave

I agree with Steve here especially about the Apple Tablet and all the hype surrounding it these days. Mobile market penetration is at 100% in so many countries, therefore this is only a natural step in the right direction.I have to admit that I don't have a smart phone (in this day and age i should kick myself in the behind) and rely 100% on my PC. This very post has spurred me to go out and buy one though.

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAhad Bokhari

Dave exactly. 

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSteve Rubel

My iPhone is really becoming my primary choice for communications (voice, email and tweets), organization (docs, info, research) and meetings (contacts / calendars). It's just so darn handy and cute :) and portable!!

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSusan Beebe

All it takes is someone to build a Redfly for the iPhone (http://www.celiocorp.com/), and we will have the dumbshell that completes the pic. I would totally use on cos at end of day it's form factor that matters. Maybe the rumoured iTablet is actually a sleek dumbshell?

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterGuan

@Adam seems you need to change the push notification settings and also change the frequency you check email to improve battery life on your iphone. http://www.apple.com/batteries/iphone.html

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered Commenteriammikek

The smart phone is the way forward and in the era of being connected it's indispensable

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterJoe Dawson

Steve, If you are right, and I think you are, then the move to smart phones will spawn two huge new businesses: docking stations and backup storage. Smart phones will never provide the user interface of a laptop or desktop, so large screen and keyboard docking stations will be big peripherals. And smart phones will continue to get lost and injured, putting data at risk which will require quick and easy back-up. Let's start designing for Xmas 2010.

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSteve Poppe

Pocket computer....am I the only person that drools over cool tech? Sure, it'll be handheld and take a while to get used to, but if we can make stuff like that in the super near future, can't wait to use my desktop computer with 24 core processor and 18GB ram ;-)

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterMike Stenger

I agree the smart phone is making the PC obsolete. I don't have an iPhone yet, still tied to Verizon. But I do have a Touch and I can do some amazing things with it that the Droid can't do. Like control my whole house lighting, HVAC, security, home theater (very cool when the lights dim, curtains open and popcorn starts popping), and appliances from anywhere in the world. Can't do that on a Droid. (Check out Indigo 4.1)Anyway, I do want a Tablet really bad though. I would like a larger screen for around the house. The Touch is great for on the road, but at home I would like something bigger. I see Apple selling a lot of Tablets when you start to consider the functionality of the device and all it's capable of.

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterSean

@Guan You mentioned Redfly and I couldn't help but think of when Palm announced the Foleo mid 2007...and then cancelled it several months later. I'm not saying it was/is a bad idea; just reminiscing. The concept of "dumb shells" was extremely intriguing to me at the time, and as technology progresses it makes more and more sense to carry around a small, compact, powerful device, and leave the large input/output devices as the stripped down stationary components. We continue to be able to build things faster, stronger, more powerful, and smaller. But our own input/output (eyes, hands, ears, etc.) are limited.

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterYancy

Multitaskers are great, and I love that the iPhone has helped eliminate the pile of gadgets I used to carry around. BUT, I am finding that the more things a phone does, the less useful it is as a phone. The phone is actually a great case for a uni-tasker. Especially since it is awfully small for some many of these other purposes. I stopped carrying a separate iPod, because I can manage without it. But I HATE the iPod functionality on the iPhone. The touchscreen interface is too fussy - I miss the scroll wheel. Anybody ever have the phone ring while you are in the middle of using the Maps application to navigate through a series of turns? I had to pull over.If the Apple Tablet was easier to type on, nicer to read with, nicer to watch video on, easier to use as a media player, easier to use as a GPS, I could easily see myself going back to a simpler phone that is just good at making phone calls.

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterRyan Biggs

@RyanSeriously? You were DRIVING a series of turns while trying to use the maps app at the same time? And the phone rang and THEN you had to pull over?!Dude, you're a Darwin Award waiting to happen. I hope I misread or misunderstood something there.

November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterMarkian

Mobile will definitely play a large role in the future and smart devices become the most widely used by consumers. Asia is already leading here as PCs never had wide market penetration. Will they totally replace notebooks?

November 21, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterJoe Buhler

*GIGGLE*I'm sorry, this just makes me laugh, and laugh, and laugh. *snort* *giggle* *guffaw*The phone as my primary computing platform? What am I going to be doing on this mythical megaphone (get it?) of which you speak? Will I be writing documents? On a 4 or 5" screen? How about spreadsheets? Oh! I know! I'm going to be running Maple on it for my day job. Sure, the processor will be able to handle it, but I'm not really all that certain that even an 8" screen with 500dpi is going to be very useful when doing data visualization. Wait. 8" screen? No, that's a tablet. And those don't exist / are irrelevant, right?Oh, I know. The phone will have a video out jack and I'll just have to plug it into a monitor and keyboard ... oops, then it's not very portable anymore, is it?Maybe if the phone manufacturers talked to Wolf Blitzer over at CNN... I hear that they have some kickass "hologram" technology.Gah. I've worked in mobile development for a few years now, and I keep hearing how the phone is going to become the primary computing platform of the future. Maybe for you, and anyone interested in tweeting their location, or updating their Facebook entries. But the physical constraints of phones limit their usefulness.If the phone turns into anything larger, then it's a tablet or netbook. And your argument is invalidated.

November 21, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterMike

too true.. see this video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ILQrUrEWe8

November 21, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterdavid d.

I totally agree; in fact, I think the phone is already the primary computing platform by sheer numbers.

November 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterBrent W. Hopkins

Smartphones are ideal for checking emails, Twitter etc while away from your main PC but as much as I love gadgets I cannot see them replacing desktops and laptops for serious work. I used to have an old Psion 3a and the keyboard on that was sheer hell for serious inputting and my last Blackberry wasn't much better. Maybe when memory and processor speeds improve and voice recognition gets a little smoother, maybe ...

November 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterKevin Tea

Excuse me Steve, What do you mean when you say " Like Google Wave the "iTablet" doesn't solve problems"??Google Wave has many, many applications, and works in a number of use cases. I'm currently using it in project management, for example. And there are use cases for both Chrome OS, the Crunchpad (you forgot about that one didn't you) and the iTablet. I use my iPhone alot, but i also use my desktop and laptop just as much, if not more. Larger screen size, larger keyboard and the use of a mouse all being reasons. So I do not agree with you that the mobile phone is the compute platform of choice for the future.

November 22, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterRoberto Bonini

Apple is building a massive data center. I believe it could support your vision by facilitating apps on the iphone that have associated external code and data in the AppleCloud for heavy lifting. Such an architecture could also help to solve the battery problem. Because Apple sells all apps over the app store it would be possible to have apps that live in part on the iPhone and another part in the AppleCloud.

November 22, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterhuund

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