![The Big Lebowski (Limited Edition) [Blu-ray Book + Digital Copy]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/512F90yEqdL._SL75_.jpg){kind=small}
Thursday
Nov192009
The Apple "Tablet" and Chrome OS are Meaningless - the Phone is the Future of Computing
Young Urban Professional
If you're paying any attention to the techosphere today there are two stories dominating the headlines. Both involve non-shipping products.
First, Google showed off the first demo of its Chrome OS. Download Squad does a nice job breaking it down....
"So what exactly is Chrome OS? It's an operating system based on a web browser called... Google Chrome. The idea is that you won't have to (or be able to) install a single application directly on your PC. Rather, all of your apps will be run from the web and all of your data will be stored in the cloud."
Second, a mythical unicorn called the Apple tablet, which I don't believe exists - at least anymore, is rumored to have slipped to late 2010. Like Google Wave the "iTablet" doesn't solve problems so I can't be bullish about it - yet. Ian Paul seems to be the lone voice of reason ...
"These rumors are getting so ridiculous that I think it's time we accepted the truth: the Apple tablet is dead; in fact it probably never existed."
So why do I think these stories are meaningless? Simple. Your phone, my phone - any smartphone - will become our primary portable computers long before these two products catch on in the mainstream. For the more adventurous among us, it's already happening. Chris Rawson writes about 33 products his iPhone made obsolete. It's not just about the iPhone either. Any smartphone - Android, Palm (a client), Blackberry, WinMo - will soon do double duty as PCs, turning all the above two products into vaporware.
Why? Simple. Moore's Law. Already an 64gb iPod Touch has enough on-board storage to easily hold two operating systems, OS X and OS X mobile. Apple is even billing it as a pocket computer. As processor speeds increase and full graphics systems get embedded onto single chips, the phones will soon be able to embody a PC experience as soon as they get near a flat screen TV and a keyboard. Some data will be locally stored but the rest will be in clouds - either your personal cloud or your employers. Want a clamshell keyboard and screen like a laptop? No problem, soon we'll see "dumb shells" that encase phones so they can do more on the go.
So take today's news with a grain of salt. The phones are going to be where the action is for the vast majority of users. It's good enough. And the pace of change in mobile will be rapid.
Reader Comments (40)
@Huund I also wonder if that data center is for HD video. It aint for books that's for sure.
The PC can't die with current smartphone monthly rates. Many people can handle dishing out $400-$800 to purchase a laptop and use it on home networks/wifi spots. It can be used for a few years and makes more financial sense then dishing out $1000 per year for basic smartphone data plans.
I think we're still a long way from the phone being the future of computing.I think Chrome OS is a great solution for any business looking to reduce hardware and software costs. With simply a netbook and a net connection to the core web applications that the company relies, companies will be able to reduce their IT costs greatly.Everyone has different requirements from technology, so it's fair to say that different people will prefer different devices to work with. Smart phones like the iPhone can only do so much and are more expensive than say a netbook and mobile broadband.
http://divraj.posterous.com/why-steve-rubel-has-lost-the-plot-chrome-and
I'm sure people who use these smartphones more than their laptops and desktops could imagine a time when the smartphone will become the main goto device for computing. But you can say the same thing about someone who primarily uses their laptop or desktop thinking this is it. We don't really learn anything from these examples.If we add in the numbers of people using smartphones vs full sized computers and also include the rate at which they are gaining in popularity. Factor in the potential for html5, faster and more compact processing hardware, increased broadband penetration and faster speeds. You might have something worth looking at there. But still it would not really lead to any great insight into which will dominate in the future, only help you understand what is happening in the short term.The problem with these kinds of predictions is once you get above a few years, you can't really accurately predict anything. In 5-10 years there could be a bunch of new technologies that change the way we use computers and no one knows what they will be. Everything might be pretty much the same, despite the potential for so much more. My own guess is that smartphones, laptops and desktops will continue to be popular for many years to come. Tiny vs portable vs large I believe will always lead to three different markets of users with different needs. Thos that need something that fits in a pocket will go tiny, those that need a larger screen for more complex ui will choose portable and those that need the very best ui experience will stay with the large desktop format. It will take some new technology to allow a tiny device to act like a large one and this may or may not happen in the next 5 years-ish.I think for a smartphone to replace the desktop it would have to have new tech that allowed for a screen to fold out so we really do have a full sized screen. Same with the keyboard. Speed will have to increase in these tiny devices beyond what is happening in the desktop market. It's not good enough to say that a smartphone today has enough cpu power to run apps on a 3" screen. The speed has to match or exceed what a desktop can do today or people will just end up choosing the faster platform as developers historically have always created software that makes use of that speed. A dumbed down version for a tiny screen is no incentive to cause a mass exodus from the desktop.For instance I'm not going to choose to play Far Cry on a smartphone when I know the experience on a desktop will be so much better. I wont edit videos on a 3" screen when I'm already craving for multiple 24" screens to have more UI on screen. I'm not going to watch video on a 3" screen when I can watch it on a large monitor or TV. I'm certainly not going to use a smartphone to store video and then play it on a larger display or make use of some cheap built in projector that will be inferior to a proper display. There are still many types of applications that are far superior on desktop and without a technological change, this will remain that way for the foreseeable future.Finally you can't use the example of plugging in a smartphone to some terminal to make it take on the properties of a desktop as a way to promote the idea that smartphones will dominate desktops. The moment you dock your smartphone to a full sized keyboard, display and docking station (presumable with storage of its own) you have in effect created a desktop machine subject to all the faults any other desktop machine has.
I just can't wait to see the Apple tablet in person.
I agree that smart phones are going to be the primary portable computer in the next couple of years. I use my iphone about an hour a day strictly as a mobile computer. It is much easier than setting up my laptop and using my Sprint card. As soon as Gotomypc and Logmein are available for the majority of smart phones, I will just login to the computer at my office to get some things done.
I was looking for "Apple Tablet" to launch in Indian market as i heard about its dashing feature with compatible rate.
I want to buy Apple Tablet because of its dashing feature so i find out the indian site :http://www.chipsilicon.com/ for buying this product in india.
With iPad, I think people are going to realize that soon!
Current ‘smart’ phones are clearly suited to the techno-gimps playing in the kindergarten of social computing for their Tweeting, bleating, updating Face Book entries etc. However, anyone who does real work that requires computing power for the heavy lifting needs a bigger and better user interface than that provided on any ‘smart’ phone. Having polled a number of users that use computing power on a daily basis to do real work (CAD, AV, Spreadsheets, Plotting/Graphing, hard number crunching/analysis etc.), the unanimous choice for the next step is for a tablet like device capable of having all apps onboard and with a suitable OS to run them all. The CPU/hardware for this gizmo may one day be the size of a current smart phone, and use a projection/roll-up screen, keyboard or similar so as to reduce size and weight further - but it will still have to be ergonomically functional for a human user, something which cannot be said of current smart phones.
@Dr T While in principle I agree with you, I think you're being unnecessarily unkind to smart phone users and indeed the range of uses smart phones have.
@techpops, yes, my comments could be viewed as being unkind by some. Note that I am by no means dissing the full range of uses for smart phones. However, many in the professions I work with find the aficionados of smart phones for the aforementioned ‘social computing’ activities, an extremely frivolous and shallow element in society.
With iPad, I think people are going to realize that soon!
I'm sure people who use these smartphones more than their laptops and desktops could imagine a time when the smartphone will become the main goto device for computing. But you can say the same thing about someone who primarily uses their laptop or desktop thinking this is it. We don't really learn anything from these examples.If we add in the numbers of people using smartphones vs full sized computers and also include the rate at which they are gaining in popularity. Factor in the potential for html5, faster and more compact processing hardware, increased broadband penetration and faster speeds. You might have something worth looking at there. But still it would not really lead to any great insight into which will dominate in the future, only help you understand what is happening in the short term.The problem with these kinds of predictions is once you get above a few years, you can't really accurately predict anything. In 5-10 years there could be a bunch of new technologies that change the way we use computers and no one knows what they will be. Everything might be pretty much the same, despite the potential for so much more.My own guess is that smartphones, laptops and desktops will continue to be popular for many years to come. Tiny vs portable vs large I believe will always lead to three different markets of users with different needs. Thos that need something that fits in a pocket will go tiny, those that need a larger screen for more complex ui will choose portable and those that need the very best ui experience will stay with the large desktop format. It will take some new technology to allow a tiny device to act like a large one and this may or may not happen in the next 5 years-ish.I think for a smartphone to replace the desktop it would have to have new tech that allowed for a screen to fold out so we really do have a full sized screen. Same with the keyboard. Speed will have to increase in these tiny devices beyond what is happening in the desktop market. It's not good enough to say that a smartphone today has enough cpu power to run apps on a 3" screen. The speed has to match or exceed what a desktop can do today or people will just end up choosing the faster platform as developers historically have always created software that makes use of that speed. A dumbed down version for a tiny screen is no incentive to cause a mass exodus from the desktop.For instance I'm not going to choose to play Far Cry on a smartphone when I know the experience on a desktop will be so much better. I wont edit videos on a 3" screen when I'm already craving for multiple 24" screens to have more UI on screen. I'm not going to watch video on a 3" screen when I can watch it on a large monitor or TV. I'm certainly not going to use a smartphone to store video and then play it on a larger display or make use of some cheap built in projector that will be inferior to a proper display. There are still many types of applications that are far superior on desktop and without a technological change, this will remain that way for the foreseeable future.