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Twitter is Peaking
Young Urban Professional
Twitter traffic data from comScore (via TechCrunch)
I have been active Twitter user since January 2007. And it's been remarkable just how much it has changed since.
In the last six months, Twitter has gone nuclear. There are three reasons why and I explore them in this post. However, they also point to why Twitter is about to jump the shark and we should begin asking ourselves what's "the next big thing."
As long as Twitter maintains a following I feel every business should join it and converse with their customers - just as I said a year ago. Still, it's always important for everyone to see the big picture. That's why predicting a market top is something I thoroughly enjoy doing. In part, it's what I am paid to do - think about what's next. This disicipline keeps me and others like Robert Scoble like from getting stale.
In December 2006 when Evan Williams first showed me Twitter in the back of a cab in Seattle, I thought it was going nowhere. But after I played with it, I got hooked. My early fascination with Twitter began because, like now, I was scanning the horizon for what's next. I sensed that in late 2006 that blogging was cresting. Twitter replaced it for me and, later, millions. Now the same can be said about RSS, which many of the early adopters who first embraced it have also now ceremoniously dumped. (More on RSS in a subsequent post.)
As I have written before, no community has ever had staying power. Twitter right now is poised to fall victim to the same trend. Let's take a look at three reasons why Twitter has witnessed incredible growth, all of which point to why the service is peaking right now. (Note: Many of you will disagree. Daniel Terdiman today wrote that at SXSW, Twitter was the new Twitter.)
1) Celebs Flocked to Twitter - Just six months ago, the list of the top 100 users on Twitter read like a who's who of geeks. That's what made it a draw, for many, initially. Now, however, the list looks like People or US Magazine. Twitter is losing it's geek creds as celebs flock to the service.
Historically, as the geeks go, so goes social media. I believe that the Founding Fathers and Mothers of Twitter - people who gave the service it's wings, will soon tire of it and seek the next shiny object. Already, Dave Winer is playing with Jaiku. Scoble is deep into Friendfeed. I am finding a lot more value these days in both Friendfeed and Facebook, which leads me to my next point.
2) Twitter is Disorganized - Twitter attracted a following because it's disorganized. Since replies are not threaded, celebs and corporations do not feel they have to respond to every Tweet. It's a tree in the forrest thing. There are no comments to moderate. And this makes it more attractive than blogging.
However, what was once "a feature" could begin to be seen as "a bug" and lead us to seek more organization. As Jeff Jarvis explains in his book What Would Google Do, other services like Facebook and Google provide elegant organization. This is something Friendfeed does well too. It's also a big reason why Tweetdeck is succeeding. Twitter would be wise to acquire Tweetdeck now before someone else does, especially as it adds more social tentacles.
3) Twitter is a Mile Wide but an Inch Deep - Brevity rules on Twitter. And this has encouraged time-starved celebrities and corporate types to jump into Twitter much more so than blogging. It also supports anonymity. You can be "a corporation" on Twitter, which you really can't do with a blog. Here people want to see the faces.
However, as Twitter grows and people begin to crave reading Tweets from personalities and others they trust, I wonder if they will want a deeper relationship - one with less anonymity. This is something other services, notably Friendfeed and Facebook, do well. You can use either to create a community around all your stuff, not just 140-character tweets. Also, I suspect they will want to weed signal from noise. Right now that's tough to do.
So you heard it here first, folks. Twitter is peaking. Now I believe Twitter can get through "the dip" that stares them in the face, but it will need to adapt by: keeping its core users intact, remaining attractive to corporations and celebs and by becoming more organized. Search will help with the latter, but expect a battle as Facebook and Friendfeed both make a concerted push to become the place for all your social stuff.
Reader Comments (70)
Furthermore, the fact that you're JUST starting find use in Facebook unveils your age. Five years ago, Facebook was the place to be online if you were a college student. Then it became available to high school students. And now adults and businesses are rushing to join and takeover. The exact opposite will happen to Twitter, as more and more Gen-Y and millennial users become aware of it.
So you see, Twitter isn't peaking. It's not even close to reaching its zenith. Expect Twitter to become the new place to be for the younger generations within the next few years.
The (increasing) majority of people interested in these social networks don't care much about organization imho - they want to send their message, read from a limited set of friends and that's about it.
Organization works well when you are following larger numbers and see every post as important - useful when you are connected all day. In my case, at Valebrity i'm seeing lots of people following who don't have hundreds of friends - and that is the majority. Twitter works really well for them.
Scoble has been into friendfeed over twitter for months now. Pointing at that now doesn't amount to much. Winer is simply upset that he didn't get chosen as a suggested user. No one follows winer.
Great post - makes one think...hmmmm what is next?Twitter will be around for years; however, like you say, they are approaching a fork in the road where people will begin to expect/want more from the service.Not sure I understand the pull to Facebook or Friendfeed.
CheersStevewww.twitter.com/stevendeblois
Happy Days enjoyed the majority of its top-rated success following the Shark Jump -- in fact it was that very jump that put it on the map. I point this out, not to be a wise guy, but to call out the idea that your analogy may very well be more apt than you realize.
Twitter may very well be losing the shine and luster of a neat little device for a small portion of people. And, I wouldn't be too surprised if it loses some of its unique-ness in the process. But, make no doubt, people will be coming to twitter for quite some time more (just as Happy Days enjopyed its top ranking sitcom status for over 6 years after the shark jump). Add to that the fact that twitter seems to pay heed to its users, any great ideas thrown out there will be added.
People will come Ray, people will most definitely come.
You want anecdotal evidence? I found this post through my Google Reader Delicious.com's "popular" RSS feed.
By that I mean that it's easy to get thousands of followers, but it's much harder to develop real discussions. There was a time when people would spend the whole day watching twitter. As a result of how much time people were ready to invest in twitter conversations could be ten to twenty replies deep, per follower. Now you're lucky if you get an answer within three or four hours.
As a result of this although user numbers are increasing exponentialy user involvment has declined. This fact is frustrating. The community have already left twitter for better and more engaging forms of social interaction on the web.
I heard Ev on NPR the other day talking about his vision to make Twitter a utility. I think that based on the conversations I've had with other people in the space, if it's ubiquitous and doesn't have features to manage around that ubiquity and provide a user experience that still (at the very least) FEELS niche, it will lose much of its appeal.
So, here's an example. People on Twitter went gaga over Obama's presence there - because they were one of only 50k or so who had a percieved "direct line" to him fairly early into the campaign. If 200million had that same line, it wouldn't feel so special.
Percieved scarcity in social capital and percieved proximity in relationship are where the Twitter juice was at this time last year... so where is it going?
of course twitter can't be a 'hot new bar' for ever, but that doesn't mean it's on the wane. on the contrary, i find it hugely encouraging that something so essentially creative seems to be permeating the mainstream. only the chinerati could see this as jumping the shark.
Glad you could confirm!
On Twitter, you do not have to listen to (read) one thing you don't want to. People who talk about it being too crowded or noisy seem to be unaware of filters, persistent searches, hashtags, and the "unfollow" button.
It is what you make it. If it's too noisy, you're...say it with me...doing it wrong.
Steve is making noise, reminding us he's still around.
There are reasons to be concerned about Twitter at this point. I've identified six warning signs that are troubling for the future of Twitter - such the influx of one-way communicating celebrities and big brands, the proliferation of spam, and even the fact Twitter doesn't have a revenue model.
More details here: http://tinyurl.com/c8r6g5
This doesn't mean that Twitter is "over" or in danger of collapsing - it is simply observations of concern for the service. Forgive me for using the "jump the shark" phrase as well - but I did credit you with it.
Twitter is too "noisy" for those who got sucked into stupid reciprocity-following games, instead of trying to keep their listening at a level of information value.
It's not about "following", it's about engaging.
Perspective: It's what's for breakfast!