The End of Tangible Media is Clearly in Sight

I want to make a bet with you today. By January 2014 I will wager that in the US almost all forms of tangible media will either be in sharp decline or completely extinct. I am not just talking about print, but all tangible forms of media - newspapers, magazines, books, DVDs, boxed software and video games.

Don't believe me? Consider the following news items, all of which broke in the last month ...

• Microsoft (an Edelman client) yesterday opened up a store to sell all of its software online for immediate download (November 13)
• Apple is selling record numbers of downloadable games for the iPhone and iPod Touch. This is attracting publishers because the lack of physical media is better economically for both consumers and video game creators (November 12)
• Oprah sparked a deluge of traffic when she endorsed the Amazon Kindle as the next big thing (November 3)
• Lots of alternatives are emerging for ebooks including the iPhone (November 3)
  
  
• Microsoft is set to open up the XBox 360 to user-generated games on November 19, all of which will only be available via download - there will be no DVDs (October 30)
• Netlfix is making its catalogue available over the Internet and on set-top boxes like the XBox 360 and soon TiVo (October 30)
• The Christian Science Monitor said it is folding its daily print edition in favor of moving it online (October 28)

Finally, if you need further proof, when was the last time you bought a CD? Exactly. For me it was back in 2003. I haven't purchased a newspaper in at least two years and the number of people who I see toting them on my morning train have declined too. I canceled my last print subscription this month and I am now living 100% "media green." Also I recently signed up for Safari Books Online and I am liking it a lot, though it's pricey and their iPhone client needs a lot of work.

We're moving fast toward becoming a society that consumes media entirely in digital format. Part of it is environmental, but a lot of it is because of broadband and connected devices. Now of course it will take a long long time for this to become a global phenomenon. But in the US at least, the pace has picked up a lot just in the last few months. Further, with the very green-aware millennials set to become the dominant demographic in the US by 2010 I would expect you will see even more of this.

So what do you think? Participate in the poll below. (Feed readers will need to click through)

Comments

[Len Kendall]

2014 might even be an overshot. 2 years ago I sold every single DVD and CD I owned. Looking at video specifically we're going from Blockbuster > Netflix > Streaming On Demand. Owning media will make very little sense.

The one piece that might still be the exception is books. For one reason or another these are considered "Collectible."

[David Leonhardt]

It's tough to argue with this line of thought, but I suspect that like most things, it is not quite that black and white. I like being able to flip through an atlas and a few large picture books, something I can't do on Kindle. These provide very different experiences than Google Maps and a Flickr photo album. And I suspect there will be plenty of people who, 50 years from now, will still prefer reading a novel the old fashioned way. Decline, no question. Extinction, well...those rumors of Mark Twain's death did eventually come true, I suppose.

[Roy Scribner]

Interesting - was talking about bandwidth with the commuter crew on the way into work this morning, and one guy commented that they are now getting their Netflix movies over the Internet. Digital is realtime, relevant, and feeds our "want it right now" appetite for content. We're going to need some type of personal archive technology, though. Something like a media player app with tagging and natural language search, that works across all of the various media that we'll be collecting.

[Mark Logan]

I'm with you on most of this, but I'll make an exception for books. I've seen the kindle, and while it's a handy device, it doesn't replace the pleasure of holding a good book and reading it in bed. Plus, I like having the artifacts of my reading around me to decorate the house. I'm in my 40s, though, so perhaps future generations will have no such nostalgia for tangible media artifacts.

[Jeff]

CDs & DVDs maybe...but not books...e-books will be hugely popular but there also will be a segment of the market that prefers printed books, particularly books that graphically don't translate well to small, palm-sized devices. POD will be a huge factor, but niche publishers will find a market in producing high-quality print editions and charge a premium price.

[Jon Crowley]

I can see the disappearance of disposable tangible goods (Newspapers), or goods that are functionally a low-value storage medium for digital content (CDs, DVDs). However, I still see long-term value in books and magazines.

Sufficient penetration of broadband internet makes distribution via disk seem illogical, and the delivery of news is time sensitive to the point where the internet just does it better (if not more accurately). But even assuming further advances in screen technology, there's allure in the collectibility and tactility of books and magazines.

As an aside, I'm 24, and have long read on mobile devices (starting with Palm PDAs at 14), so I don't think I'm biased due to comfort level or nostalgia.

That said, I'd rather buy books or magazines that came with a searchable digital copy, so I could more easily archive them, find research info, and keep my collection of physical books / magazines limited to the ones I love.

[Mark Willis]

As a blind reader, I welcome the decline of inaccessible forms of tangible media, just so long as the digital replacements are accessible or hackable. I voted for “Not Soon Enough.” Really, though, I think tangible media will persist and evolve into specialized niche forms. I’ll keep the antiquarian books I can touch and smell, even if I can’t read them.

[Richard Stacy]

I'd say you are about right. The prediction I use when talking about this comes from Ron Bloom of Mevio (formerly PodShow)who said in 2006 that within 5 years 50% of the content consumers consume will be produced by other consumers. Irrespective of actual content or content format this alone would destroy the business model of the traditional media (what I call the Gutenberg media) if anything like it came to pass. There will still be a role for "tangible" formats - as some of the above comments suggest - but its very tangibility will be what shapes it and also controls the content. I use the analogy of differentiating between obtaining nourishment (content) and gastronomy (format). See http://tinyurl.com/5eopmo

[Norman Birnbach]

I agree with you in that we will see more traditional media outlets shift to an online-only format in 2009, driven in part by the printing and distribution costs as well as by a sluggish advertising sector. But I think some premier branded print media -- the New York Times, Wall St. Journal -- will survive past 2014 because there will still be an audience out there who prefers their news in a broadsheet or tabloid format.

I don't agree that magazines and books will disappear as quickly as by 2014 in part because of how people like to read and use them. I have a friend who likes his Kindle, but we haven't seen the adoption rates for it that would set the foundation for your prediction. It's not because the Kindle is too expensive; at $359, it's like purchasing another iPod. That said, I do think e-books will become more popular -- but won't replace print books by 2014.

[Adam OLeary]

I agree that the trend is heading that way and eventually I think all media will be digital. However, I think there is psychological aspect to reading a magazine and newspaper. The feel of the pages, the act of turning them, etc.Now, it is practical and logical to encourage their extinction, however, not everything that is logical comes to fruition. The American public can be very nostalgic about their routines.

[Ivy]

It's going to happen when Amazon reaches their goal of having everything available for the Kindle. Look at the Best American series. Of all the books, only Best American Poetry is available for the Kindle. If you're a fan, you're stuck with Best American Nonrequired Reading, Best American Essays, Best American Short Stories, etc. etc. in print.

When people can see and touch the Kindle more, than the nostalgia aspect will die. We don't use papyrus scrolls too much these days, either. Everyone I know who has a Kindle, myself included, looks for that version first and settles for print, in the exact way we'd rather an mp3 than a CD. Sure a CD player is a lot cheaper than an MP3 player, but we buy them anyway. Sure a Kindle costs about the same as an iPod, but iPod won a huge following, and for readers, the Kindle will too. Amazon can barely keep them in stock as it is.

For storage, Kindle wins. For retrieval, Kindle wins. How fast can you lay your hands on a book in your library? How fast can you find it from an alphabetized list on a device where you can jump to the first letter by typing it? For longevity, digital media wins. Magazines yellow; bits are forever. For portability, digital media wins. For availability, cost, convenience, all the things shoppers consider, digital media wins.

[Sampad Swain]

More or less the trends that you have portrayed here is infallible. Can't deny it. But really want to know how come you arrived at a specific date i.e. January 2014! Was it to sensitize the topic or you've some concrete foundational theory to it..

Elucidate...

---Sampad Swain

[Dale Cruse]

I was just having this conversation with someone recently about journalism. For years, too many journalists considered themselves "print journalists" or "broadcast journalists" etc., rather than just "journalists." So when one form of media starts to die (see: newspapers) those journalists feel stuck and think the end is nigh for them. If, instead, they just realize that the content they are creating is the important part - not the medium - they will find themselves nimble and able to assimilate to just about any market condition. The message lives on even if the medium does not.

[Andrea Nowack]

Years ago, while I was still in college, I was asked by a prospective employer where I got my news. I didn't have a definitive answer, because truth be told, I got my news mostly online (and from local/campus dailies I picked up for free in the student union). Even today I still think about this question, because now as more peoples' media consumption habits are beginning to shift online, mine have remained relatively unchanged (I grew up in the digital era, so for me it's all I've really known).

I agree with much of what is said above and in your post, Steve, but I think both the digital generation's entering into the professional world, and price in relation to relevance, play a huge role in this shift.

I think cost will eventually contribute more to the tipping point of everyday people (and not just the digital first-movers) abandoning print completely - why pay for a New York Times subscription when you can get virtually the same news through it's online affiliate? Additionally, the media savvy like getting their news from many different outlets; online subscriptions will be not only a cost-saver but also an easy way to categorize and browse through what's relevant to them.

I, too, think magazines will be slower to go, and books will never die, but I suppose we'll just have to wait until January 2014 to see.

[Ivy]

I disagree with Andrea that newspapers will die. It's just too easy to get the New York Times right on the Kindle, no searching, no trouble. The average person, who just wants to read the newspaper on the way to work, is going to be fine plunking down a little money for the convenience. Magazines won't die just by changing form. It's the content, not the delivery method, that matters.

[Rudy]

I'm inclined to think that the remaining lifespan of tangible media is directly related to the ability to make much needed improvements in broadband infrastructure and access. Frustrations with lack of connectivity and access speed are still concerns that the industry is not addressing quickly enough.

[Tom Morris]

And more importantly than any of that... BitTorrent!

I remember watching the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD fight and thinking the whole thing was slightly pointless and old-fashioned since buying DVDs is a bit pointless when BitTorrent exists.

[Brent Harrison]

I miss my LP's as dated and scratched as they were. I purchase a Saturday or Sunday paper (every 2 or 3 months) for nostalgia's sake. But don't try to take my iPhone, iPod and digital music and media collection away from me - no going back.

[Josh]

Steve-

I appreciate you asking such an inflammatory question, but this is absolute nonsense (however I'm feeling particularly blowhardedly right now, and I'm avoiding actual work, so I'll answer). As an advocate for sustainable culture, I am definitely a proponent for all those who look to go media green, but this is crazy. By 2014? Even crazier. No doubt print newspapers unable to adapt to the internet look like they will continue to collapse into oblivion. They won't. A market culture worshipping annual growth has led analysts to believe that contractions in these industries mean doom. They don't. Overzealous environmentalists believe that the continuation of print media will bring about total deforestation. That's not the case (in fact, paper production is hardly the driving force behind deforestation).

I am 24 years old, and a major advocate for social media and digital communications. But just because I appreciate digital for what it can do, I also realize the things that it can't. Digital can't be shared with poorer learners in the US (and won't be universally available in such a context for some time). Digital can't be notated as easily as print (try to be a grad student and consume digital-only materials). Digital cannot overcome clutter, and in fact, I believe that it magnifies the problem.

For instance, I just found myself on the BusinessWeek site and thought about subscribing to an RSS feed. The only problem is, there are about 30 to choose from, and I want about 15. Their podcast library on iTunes was similarly bewildering. I have decided it would be better to subscribe to it and read it on the weekend, being able to comb through what I like and gloss over what I don't. It's much harder to do this on a website, where headlines are arranged too closely, making sifting through them both cumbersome and irritating. My three e-mail accounts all receive different newsletters and notifications, and my Google Reader sends me 250+ stories a day (and growing), which I'm finding takes up far too much of my time. If I receive something in the mail, however, like The Economist, The New Republic, or BusinessWeek, I can read them at my leisure, and keep less pressing commentary articles for later (perhaps when working in my other "office").

If nothing else, print will always have a place...right next to the john.

[Susan]

I agree with you that this is going to happen. I do hope that it won't happen to books. The beauty of reading a book is being able to hold it in your hand, feeling the paper, writing in the margins, and of course, a well-loved book tends to have those tattered edges.

I hate to see the newspaper go away as well. I enjoy reading the entire paper, despite its leanings, as I find nuggets of information that inform and affect my daily life. Yes, I know it's all on the Internet, but I don't know what I'm looking for when reading the paper on the web. The discovery process is what's key, and of course, it just won't be the same if you don't have a Sunday paper as the family sits down around breakfast.

[Nicholas]

Do individuals feel the need to own more and more digital technology to replace the herding of books, CDs and magazines? Are natural instinct in play in the marketing of largely useless accumulations of "knowledge"?

Old magazines are a disposable history. How often does one think "got to get rid of those, I haven't looked at them in years."?

Where our addiction to knowledge was filling up bookshelves, we now find new artifacts accumulating instead. It is our nature. Keep this. Store that. Our belief in that rainy day when we will read it all is far easier to ignore with digital data.

[Ari Herzog]

If media dies in six years, then libraries as we know them today cease to exist. And for libraries to cease, the entire notion of government services for the people and by the people changes.

[Adam Marcus Batley]

CDs and Vinyl reduced to lower fidelity files. Album art and liner notes reduced to shitty jpgs and sloppy discogs entries. Books reduced to...well...text files. I dont see the end of tangible media; I see the growing market for chameleon gadgets that can only give you replicas of the art you yearn for.

Having the super-lossless encoded favourite album of your choice with pixel for pixel zoomable album art in PDF format won't fully replace whatever edition of "The Downward Spiral", "The White Album", "Speak & Spell", "Leftism", ect. Just like a fullsize reproduction of the Mona Lisa a Mona Lisa does not make.

Replicas, copies, ersatz media. All substitutes for the real thing. Devalue the medium and you devalue the art.

While all of your peers jettison everything physical for something compatible with the Iphone variant of their choice...I will still be archiving. Why? Because one day, you will all learn your lesson.

Sincerely-Adam

[Luke Gedeon]

I'll take that wager. Here are the terms. In 2014, I want you make a public announcement in whatever format is in vogue at the time (blog or the next new thing). In that announcement, you will link my website with praise of my great insight.

If by 2014, we have found an alternative to physical media, I will do the above for you.

[Aravind Jose T.]

This is nothing BUT TRUTHMy Full Support.