The Apple 4G iPhone Prototype is Probably a Head Fake

Image above via Gizmodo

Right now the web is abuzz with commentary about a seemingly real next generation iPhone that was found in a bar. Gizmodo has the details. I don't doubt its authenticity or Gizmodo's reporting work here, but I believe the entire episode could be either a deliberate or somewhat hopeful plant by Apple designed to throw us off the trail of the real thing. I don't have evidence. I am just connecting some dots.

First, some background. Apple is the last company that I am aware of that thrives under command and control PR. Practically every other institution has been forced in this age to open up and become more transparent and collaborative (much to their benefit) - even entire governments. Apple meanwhile has thrived by maintaining precise control over the news flow and holding everything back for the "big reveal" when Steve controls the show. That's the Steve Jobs way - manage the entire "end to end" ecosystem, including the App Store and PR. And it's worked.

This was very easy before. Now, however, as Apple grows and there's more attention focused on the company, this is getting harder in an era where transparency and openness are the new defaults. So Apple needs to get creative.

It's been reported that Apple allegedly has teams in the company working on prototypes that will never see the light of day. It does so, it's been said, to maintain secrecy and to occasionally throw people off the trail. That's what I think is happening here.

If that's not enough, consider this - Apple appears to strive to maintain the news flow after a product is announced yet before it's available. After the iPad was revealed, it's been reported that Apple kept the few that were in the wild chained down to special tables. So this isn't a company that lets important unreleased devices anywhere near the wild... unless, that is, they want someone to find it.

So, to sum up, here's my analysis. I believe Apple made this device. It seems very authentic and Gizmodo has done a great reporting job. However, more importantly I believe this is probably a false prototype that someone from Apple either left in the bar intentionally or with an individual who they thought might do so for reasons only they know.

We'll find out for sure probably this summer, but that's my educated guess as a continuous student of PR.

LATER:: Gizmodo now has more on the person who lost the phone. However, I wonder if he had the real next-gen iPhone or just one that Apple was comoftable seeing leave its campus for a reason.

The Jay Leno Rule of Social Media

Image Credit: Jay Leno carrying on with Taylor Hicks (by Techbirmingham via on Flickr)

I am a big believer in using stories and visuals to convey a message. My teammate David Armano is helping me with the latter. Here's a metaphor that I have been using with our clients that might be helpful to you.

Some businesses have a Twitter or Facebook presence or a blog, yet they're not getting the kind of activity or engagement they hope to receive. This is understandable and a common problem. There's a lot of competition for attention. But one night I was watching the Tonight Show and it hit me. From that point on I started talking about "The Jay Leno Rule of Social Media." It's simple and it works.

If you think about it, the celebrity slots on The Tonight Show are pretty formulaic: guest walks on; guest engages/yucks it up with Jay about broad human interest topics (life stories, current affairs, etc.); guest promotes his/her book, movie, TV show, event, shows a clip, etc.; guest moves down the couch; rise, repeat, wash. This has been the script for decades, going all the way back to Jack Parr.

It struck me that this is a great model for any company hoping to build relationships through social media. The "Jay Leno Rule" is deceptively simple and easy to implement. Basically, here's how it works...

If you want to get people to care about what you're selling, you have first to get them engaged by being informative and/or entertaining. In short, you need to get us interested in what you - a brand, an NGO, an individual - have to say beyond your domain. Such pathways to engagement include stories, humor, links to interesting information, ideas, questions and participating in other discussions (e.g. Follow Friday, etc.) Then, once you get us hooked, it's easier talk about what you want to sell us. We'll be more receptive.

This isn't rocket science. In reality, it's human relations 101 - but it's something a lot of companies forget. After all, most marketers focus on themselves and what they want to say.

Mint is a company that does this quite well. They embrace the Jay Leno Rule. Mint has a great blog that shares lots of tidbits that encourage financial well-being. Then, once in awhile, they interrupt the flow with product news. It's simple and gets me reading more.

Simple enough, yet effective, right?

Three Trends Slates Will Accelerate

A little over a week ago I moved my MacBook Air off my desk at home and jumped in using a slate to cover 90% of my work/personal needs (basically I just use my laptop to manage the slate). In the office, I only used my HP desktop for complex tasks that required it - like PowerPoint.

My verdict: if you are a knowledge worker and your computing needs center mostly around the web and text, as mine do, slates are ready for prime time. I am going to continue using my iPad as my primary device. And I hope to try HP's slate when it comes out (HP is an Edelman client).

I believe the slate format is the future - perhaps not mainstream today, but they will be soon. However, as the slates take off they're going to have an impact on marketing and media as well. Here are the three trends that I believe the format will accelerate...

1) Media Reforestation

Media is in a rapid state of evolution as consumption moves from atoms (e.g. print) to bits. I believe all tangible forms of media - everything you can see, touch, taste and smell - will be in sharp decline or extinct by 2012 in the US, and eventually globally.

Mobile devices, especially slates, are going to accelerate this trend. The experience of reading the Wall Street Journal on the iPad is better than the web site or the print edition. If News Corp. prices it reasonably, I will subscribe. I believe many millions will too.

Everyday a newsprint reader dies and is not replaced. However, newspaper readers will be around forever and slates give the medium a real shot in the arm. However, that's not to say there won't be pain - the economics are different.

2) The Attention Crash

On my iPad right now I have four feature-length movies, 2500 songs, two email accounts, Facebook, Twitter, six ebooks, dozens of articles I want to read (thank you Instapaper!), many news apps, games and more.

Now I am an extreme information junkie. Not everyone is. But these devices put infinite choices at our disposal. Yet the fact remains, we only have one brain.

We're deep into a crisis of attention. Slates will accelerate attention apnea. We will start and stop tasks, jumping from one to the other. The end result, more media snacking, fewer meals, And when we do consume meals, it maybe quality content like movies, news apps and TV shows that reign. Time will tell.

3) Work-Life Blending

The great thing about slates is the value they offer for the cost - $500 - as well as in their portability. This week I attended several meetings inside and outside the firm and I spotted iPads at every single one. Yesterday I attended a brainstorm at a major NGO that included people from around the globe. At one table of six there I saw four iPads. Most of these devices I suspect were purchased by individuals not their employers.

Slates, like instant messaging, Twitter, Facebook and the like, are going to sneak into corporations via the back door, though I suspect some employers will buy them for knowledge workers.

The trend here to note is that these devices blend our work/personal lives. Slates didn't cause blending but as more of us bring them to work, it accelerates. IT managers will need to provide sound guidance to ensure these devices and smart phones protect corporate information, while not stifling productivity. A byproduct: this is will likely encourage companies to become more social since slates and smart phones bring social networking deep inside the firewall.

That's what I see in my crystal ball. Slates largely accelerate trends that smart phones started. Now I may be wrong of course. Time will tell. But I see a lot of promise for these devices and potentially many winners, not just Apple.

The Swiss Cheese Web Ain’t The Web

The following essay is also cross-posted on the Edelman Digital blog.

Seemingly overnight the Information Superhighway (does anyone call it that anymore?) became littered with potholes. In the last week Apple sold nearly 500,000 iPads, none of which support key technologies that we have come to rely on, including Adobe Flash, Windows Media and others. (Adobe and Microsoft are Edelman clients.)

For the last week I have been using my iPad as my primary device. I enjoy the slate format and think it’s the next big thing for computing – one that will see lots of winners. Unfortunately, this comes at a cost. I don’t get to experience the web like I used to, but a version of it that only Apple approves of – one that’s peppered with potholes that turns it into the swiss cheese web. The above image is what our own web site looks like on the iPad, which proudly uses Flash for certain features.

This poses a challenge for Web developers – one that Josh Bernoff so eloquently details on his post on the “Splinternet.” Should one develop the most robust experience using the best technologies on the market or should they kowtow to Apple’s vision for the Internet? Tough call.

In the end we believe that marketers should develop for the masses – the common denominator that unites the broadest universe of consumers. Right now, that’s desktop browsers with plug-ins. However, if developers need to start coding different versions of their site for different platforms, then we have trouble ahead. Standards are what made the web become a mass consumer medium.

Edelman Digital calls on Apple and all companies to support consumer choice – to allow consumers to have the same experience they are accustomed to on the desktop. Where once mobile devices were not powerful enough to run rich media technologies, that’s no longer the case. Why ban Flash and WMVs yet support Quicktime and PDF – two other standards. It makes no sense.

The Swiss Cheese Web ain’t the real web. At minimum Apple and others need to convey this up front (a disclaimer in their ads would be a nice start). However, it is our hope that they will open more and embrace the same standards that have allowed online innovation to blossom.

Twitter Sponsored Tweets: The Impact for Marketers

Big day in Twitterland with the roll-out of their new ad platform. This morning I gave an interview to my friends at Forbes.com, where I am a columnist, on my thoughts and hopes for the platform. The full interview follows below...

Forbes: What's most surprising about Twitter's Ad platform?

Steve Rubel: What's most surprising about the rollout is how conservative it is. It's clear that Twitter thought a lot about all three of its primary audiences - users, developers and advertisers - and devised a system that seems to respect the needs of all three. They could have been a lot more aggressive by focusing only on display or rich media but they chose a more measured, contextual approach, which I think will help them in the long run.

Forbes: What do you see as the most significant component?

The most significant component is resonance--the nine factors that Twitter will use to measure the performance of the ads. If an ad isn't performing well across all of these key performance indicators, then the ads will be taken out of rotation. It's very similar to Google's model, which has helped the ads maintain a high degree of relevance.

Forbes: What about it will be most useful to marketers?

The most intriguing aspect of the platform is that it allows businesses to add a degree of permanence to their tweets. This means that they can maintain some degree of visibility, long after they have floated downstream.

The reason this is significant is that the "destination Web era" (where we browse from site to site) is over. Today, more of us are consuming content in stream form. If you're not in the stream when a tweet hits, you're likely to miss it. With this new program, advertisers can now pay to get around this - which is significant - and target their tweets accordingly.

Working for a public relations firm, I am particularly intrigued by how Twitter is positioning it as a reputation management service for companies in crisis.

Forbes: What could Twitter have done better with its ad platform plans?

It's a bit early to tell, but so far nothing. It might have been better if they opened up the process a bit to developers and power users to weigh in, but I am not seeing any kind of backlash so far. I believe that Twitter's audience wants to see them monetize in a way that allows them to maintain and grow the platform they love. The trick is to do so in a way where the advertising adds value to the experience and doesn't get in the way. This seems to hit this nail on the head, but time will be the ultimate jury.

Forbes: What will happen to the other paid Tweet platforms?

Twitter is at a crossroads right now. It is starting to add some of the features that have allowed some vendors in its ecosystem that filled voids to thrive. The trick for these platforms will be to stay ahead of the game. Ideally Twitter will open a dialogue with them to give them a sense of the markets they plan to enter and those they plan to avoid so that the ecosystem can build viable business models without having to worry about them being disrupted by the mother ship.

Forbes: Is there anything about this ad platform that is disruptive either to other social ad platforms or to the way that marketers interact with social consumers?

It's a bit early to tell how disruptive this will be. It all depends on how well the ads are received by the community and how well they perform. It could potentially create a nice direct response platform that complements other, brand-oriented models like those that have made ads on Facebook and YouTube successful.