Facebook Now Drives More Traffic to Key Sites Than Google

UPDATE: A couple of notes to clarify this post. First, the chart above, which I pulled from compete.com, shows the top sites that Facebook drives traffic to. Also the headline has been updated to reflect that Facebook is driving more traffic to portals than Google. The San Francisco Chronicle story, linked below, notes that Facebook is only starting to encroach on Google for other sites. The trend, however, still holds.

We're at the beginning of a major shift in how we find, consume and interact with information. If the 2000s was the Google decade, then the 2010s will be the Facebook decade. Already, you can see the writing on the wall - pun intended. Case in point: a search for "google decade danny sullivan" pulls up his Facebook note higher than a blog post (an item I wanted to include here for context). But that's nothing. Look at the data.

According to new stats from compete.com Facebook is becoming the web's top source of traffic (link via Jeremiah Owyang on where else, Facebook). The image above is a snapshot I pulled from compete.com. It shows where Facebook is sending traffic...

"According to Web measurement firm Compete Inc., Facebook has passed search-engine giant Google to become the top source for traffic to major portals like Yahoo and MSN, and is among the leaders for other types of sites.

This trend is shifting the way Web site operators approach online marketing, even as Google takes steps to move into the social-media world.

Some experts say social media could become the Internet's next search engine."

That last line is key. I see Facebook starting to look more like Google while Google tries and stumbles at becoming more social. Bing will start to play a central supporting role here. I see Facebook and Bing becoming an "Axis of FTW" that will disrupt Google on every front. (Microsoft is an Edelman client.)

You can already see it coming...

• Titan/Facebook Chat will challenge Gmail in communications


• Facebook pages will disrupt Google - especially if they were to integrate Bing Maps and location technology a la Foursquare. This can quickly position Facebook as the Web's Yellow Pages, an area that Google and Yelp currently dominate


• Facebook will make search more social, allowing it to become annotated and curated. This up-ends Google's core business. It also makes the Facebook self-serve advertising model smarter and more effective as it collects more data about where it sends traffic. This threatens Adwords

Social networking is here to stay. It's where attention spirals are flowing and no one looms larger than Facebook. (Link sharing on Facebook rose 500% in six months.) And while Facebook has plenty of critics and they run into the occasional privacy concerns, I believe that they will dominate the landscape the next few years. In fact, I see them becoming the number one web site in the world in under three years. It could eat the web.

Now a lot could go wrong. It is possible that Facebook will become AOL the sequel. But I don't see it. There's no alternative and the more we put into Facebook the more value we gain from it. This is a different era where vertical integration (e.g. owning and controlling the whole experience) is a major plus, especially if it's elegant and simple. There's too much information and things vying for our attention today. This turns vertical integration and simplicity into a competitive advantage.

So what does this mean? I believe business web sites will become less important over time. They will be primarily transactional and/or for utility. Brands will shift more of their dollars and resources to creating robust presence where people already are and figure out how to activate employees en masse in a way that builds relationships and drives traffic back to their sites to complete transactions. Media companies will do the same - they will be "headless."

Google and search will remain important for years to come. However, what we're seeing is the beginning of big changes where social networking and Facebook will further disrupt advertising, media, one-to-one and one-to-many communications, not to mention search.

Comments

[Radu]

If you asked someone one year ago about Facebook driving more traffic to sites than Google, most probably they would have replied with a big no. This is a drastic change but, I guess, it's for the better. More powerful social media means more power to its people and a less controllable web.

[Andrew Denny]

I really have a disconnect about all this, and I'm not the only one. I have many friends who, like me, embrace almost all forms of social media but just cannot get Facebook. But then, I don't watch TV either.

[Alex Avery - SEO, PPC and Anal]

When looking at Internet analytics, it's important not to confuse multi-window Internet browsing with "generating traffic". If I tab between a browser with the weather on it and my Internet banking, Compete will think the weather site drive traffic to my bank. So too with these statistics on Facebook. Multi-window browsing is not the same as search.Secondly, Facebook turned revenue positive for the first time in September 2009. Google posts multiple billion (read: $X,000,000,000) profits every year. If Google decides Facebook pages are no longer "relevant" they will no longer appear in results. This would seriously negatively impact Facebook. Google are doing Facebook a favour allowing their pages to list in SERPs.If Google perceived Facebook as a viable threat in the Search space, they would address it. It's not true, so they're not worried. Facebook has neither the money, nor the technology to be a viable Search competitor. Unless Facebook learn to make money without annoying their free-loading fans, they could become the next Friendster, rather than the next Google.http://www.theonion.com/content/video/internet_archaeologists_findI think you're adding 2+2 and coming up with 22.

[Radu]

I personally do not search that often anymore. When I need something I ask. I usually get many answers and they're all relevant to me. More than that, I don't stumble upon interesting things while I search but while I follow people on social networks. We have the same interests and this is how I get to keep up with what I like.

[Marshall Kirkpatrick]

I agree this is coming but think it's premature to say it's here already. Categorization makes a big difference in this kind of analysis, like how last month's Hitwise write-up of social networking "passing" search in traffic put YouTube in the social networking bucket instead of search where it more likely belongs. Likewise this analysis is really about the relationship between facebook, google and some other search and content portals. Look at other categories of destination pages and Facebook is still behind by 50%, something that gets downplayed in the text.

[Steve Rubel]

@Marshall, fair enough. I believe there's ample room for both. Facebook will help us know more about what we don't know - it will be for push discovery. Google will be for pull discovery - when we go seek out what we think we need to know. But Bing's role here in the middle is very interesting.

[nik sargent]

Information serves different needs - two obvious classes: research and entertainment. Google and facebook serve these quite neatly and (at the moment) in quite a complementary way. Using google I find information I want or need to know . Using facebook I find stuff I don't need to know, but enjoy knowing. They can be very complementary services.

[Ted Rex]

I certainly see a shift in the online King of the Hill game going on presently. My only concern about giving the crown to Facebook right now regards their constant updates to the layout. Facebook seems to have this mentality that they can go in and rearrange somebody's social living space and not have it affect loyalty. It would be like somebody sneaking into my kitchen and rearranging all my cooking utensils just because somebody else deems it more efficient. While that may be true, I had become very used to where all my stuff was and had no need/intention of moving it, thank you very much. Facebook needs to work quietly under the hood for a while and allow people to settle in to a consistant social living space to attract more people and calm the present users who are frustrated. All the best, Ted

[Steve Rubel]

@Ted I see it both ways. They need to keep innovating too. Tough to stay still today.

[Dave]

Well, while I do not whole heartedly agree with the facts of this blog I do feel that being connected is helping to improve search results. It looks like Google is moving into this arena with the purchase of Aardvark, this has the potential of providing a social search experience with Googles integrity ensuring good results.

[rob kelly]

I think your right on with your thinking, Steve. I was stunned to hear from a top corporation recently (that caters to B2B!) that Facebook's organic traffic was "neck and neck" with organic traffic from Google -- and that's from a co. servicing the Fortune 100!I think such tales will now be more common.Facebook is hitting its tipping point right now (consumer and biz and the two intertwined)

[Steve Rubel]

@Rob the intertwined nature of Facebook is particularly intriguing as it accelerates other similar trends.

[amanda4bes]

Wow. These facts are really intriguing. From a social media standpoint it looks like this movement in traffic further supports the use of Facebook as a business channel. I do agree that Facebook and Google are typically used for different means, but if you look at a company’s Facebook page as an extension of its web site and thus a catalyst for SEO, then the fact that Facebook might be king shows that it’s working from a referral standpoint.Regarding @Ted’s earlier comment, I agree that Facebook’s constant changes don’t help in the short-term. However, I also believe that unless you know and understand Facebook’s 5-year plan, then it’s hard to determine if these recent facelifts will help or hinder its growth. I personally have no clue where Facebook plans to be in 5-years, but I can tell you that I’ll be watching to see if it can hang on.

[ray]

sorry steve, but you're waaay off track. first off, consumer behavior will dictate that there can't be one identity broker on the web. this will simply won't happen. of course they'll be subject to power laws, but you're deeply discounting consumer dynamics on this issue.second platform leadership. facebook cannot compete on integration of data services, which is where all the value is. there is no evidence to date that fb has demonstrated this capability current fb developers as a value-network does not cut it. leadership: zuckerberg is obsessed with platform domination. domination as a strategy is bankrupt on the web - esp as it increasingly becomes ecosystemic and distributed - web as a platform model (this is you aol argument).search monetization. this is a tough nut to crack. don't under estimate the corporate competencies facebook needs to succeed at this.i'll give facebook something - they've pooled some amazing talent (notably sheryl sandberg - if anyone can drive monetization - she can), but i don;t think it will be enough to be more dominant than google.

[Ciro Villa]

I take with a grain of salt, even the most educated prediction these days. The history of the internet has shown us over and over how paradigm shifts can occur at a very fast pace and a relative moment’s notice.The very social media explosion and mass adoption of the last decade, has taken place in forms that I dare say could not be predicted even by the best minds, especially when it comes to the relative humble beginnings of some of the most popular ones.Case in point, Facebook, started by the vision of young college students, now the de-facto standard place, for electronic socialization and contact for a large part of the internet population; who could have predicted that.

[Paul Chaney]

There is so much insight to chew on here, everything from "social media could become the Internet's next search engine" to Facebook becoming the #1 Web site in three years to " business web sites will become less important over time." Wow! I've sent this to our entire staff at Bizzuka. Given that we do Web design, Web development and online marketing, this shift could have huge impact on the way we do business in the near future. I'm hopeful our staff will pay heed.

[Steve Rubel]

@Paul it won't be a zero sum game. Google will loom large...but not as dominantly as it does before. I also don't think we've seen the fruits yet of Bing + Facebook. But I do see social networking dominating. All the data trendlines are moving us in this direction. Look at these stats on how journalists research stories - http://j.mp/9NVhTl. I am sure that Google would be 100% here but still note how large Facebook and LinkedIn are.

[Steve Rubel]

Note an update to my post up top.

[Sue Anne Reed]

This is why it's so important to monitor your Analytics on a regular basis, so you can know what to devote time to. If your traffic from Facebook is increasing, you need to devote more time to Facebook. For most web sites, I have a feeling that Google is still the major traffic source (2nd to direct traffic), but Facebook is definitely on the rise.

[Sylmobile]

Google is a one trick pony. They did that trick well, but the world has been shifting and Google has been unsuccessfully scrabbling to hold their dominance. But they have alienated the whole corporate world with their trick. Not search and not email. Nor any other one of the gadgets they've created.Advertising. The cash. It's going to slip away. Google will not exist in two years.

[RBLevin]

Be careful about putting too much faith in these numbers. Interesting stuff, must be noted, but "damn statistics."http://searchengineland.com/hulu-traffic-controversy-pits-comscore-vs-nielsen-19336

[Gerald Lacey]

Good article! Social networking is here to stay and businesses will continue to use Facebook as a way to brand their name and product!

[Joe Buhler]

This might well happen and it will depend what most consumers will feel most comfortable with using to communicate with each other and with companies on the social web. For many Facebook is and continues to be that tool, for a large number it is Google with GMail and now Buzz. Personally I find Facebook more confusing and less intuitive. Whatever will happen eventually, the battle has been joined and companies must pay attention.

[Bert Mahoney]

You say "I believe business web sites will become less important over time. They will be primarily transactional and/or for utility."I just do not see this happening.I do think that businesses will shift how they market and integrate social media in their marketing mix (we see that now) but I highly doubt businesses would let their websites wither and put all their eggs in the social media world, be it Facebook, etc.The ability to have individual expression and control of the entire user experience, I think, is too important to some businesses to allow them to become an iframe within a social media website.Yes some businesses will may go that route and succeed. But I never see the importance of individual websites waning.

[Jeff Reckseidler]

We have to be VERY careful saying that Facebook will completely take over. Since the rise of the Internet we've seen various big platforms and portals come and go. Over the past few years as Facebook scaled MySpace and is billions in valuation has come crashing down. The simple fact is: consumers are fickle. We've see time spend averages come down inside Facebook and an aging audience....which says to me we may one day see Facebook fall like many other dominating platforms.Google is 'Google' because at the outset they built traffic volume by providing efficient and relevant search results. That traffic volume was then leveraged and monetized through an innovative ad platform (Adwords). As traffic grew they continued to innovate and exposed their visitors to an increasing amount of products and services that paid off the Google brand - its classic digital marketing! Grow your online traffic in order to provide exposure to you product and service. Facebook has grown traffic and users, but they haven't become indispensable to people like Google has. They are a social property that connect friends, families and make interaction easy.I like the notion of push discovery vs. pull discovery. and to sum up my ramble - I think I like the business of pull discovery vs. push. we'll see how this all unfolds!!