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Tuesday
Jan052010
Sooner or Later, Facebook Will Launch Its Own Phone
Young Urban Professional
Change happens slowly.
It took us years before we noticed that Microsoft was upending a tech industry that, until the 1990s, IBM dominated. However, if you squinted you saw this starting in the 1980s once the mainframe era was ending.
Then Google changed the game for Microsoft (a client) in the 2000s when the desktop lost some of its dominance to the broadband-enabled web - but like with IBM this shift started earlier, back in the 1990s.
Now, it could happen again.
Then Google changed the game for Microsoft (a client) in the 2000s when the desktop lost some of its dominance to the broadband-enabled web - but like with IBM this shift started earlier, back in the 1990s.
Now, it could happen again.
Just as everyone thinks Google is unstoppable comes Facebook. Over time we may soon witness another shift as the web evolves from an intent-driven medium where you need tell it what you want to one where content and ads finds you through the lens of your friends and their digital footprints. However, if the desktop was the battleground in the 1990s and the web was in the 2000s then mobile is where the battle for dominance will take place next.
Consider these three data points, all of which are fresh...
- According to Mary Meeker, more people will connect to the Internet via mobile devices than PCs in five years
- Forrester reports that 17% of US consumers have smartphones. (That means that 83% don't.)
- And Pew says that 55% of Americans connect wirelessly (And 45% therefore don't)
And that's just the US. Combine these three trends on a global level and it's obvious that mobile is the future. Mobile is a far far larger market than mainframes, PCs or even the web. It will have lots and lots of winners in hardware, software and services. This is why I believe Facebook can't sit on the sidelines anymore. They will be on every device, but they eventually will try to launch their own hardware too.
Consider this: Facebook is competing with Google for time, attention and ad dollars. With Google clearly serious about phones. And Apple buying up mobile ad companies. Facebook can't solely rely just on others to carry their application if they want to dominate what will increasingly be a mobile market for content and ads. They will want to have a deeper relationship with their users. Deeper relationships means more data and more data means more moolah.
Facebook easily has the brand equity to launch their own phone (most likely with a partner at first) and marry it to your address book, photos, videos and events in ways that Google can never match because they are more social. Facebook gets connections and how to use the data to make your life better.
Scoble talks about the Google Reef. Sure it's big. But in many ways it's the Facebook reef that could be far larger.
How large? Consider these stats. A lot of people wouldn't know Picasa from Picasso. But Facebook sees more than 2.5 billion photos uploaded to the site each month. A lot of people don't know Yelp (a rumored Google acquisition) from Yodels, but Facebook has 700,000 local businesses that are a click away from 350M people - who oh yeah on average have 130 friends on the site and spend hours there, often from phones.
See the pattern? All of these are mobile experiences: your friends, your events, your photos and local businesses. They're made for mobile phones. Mark my words. Facebook will launch a mobile phone. But this isn't zero sum. There will be lots of winners.
Reader Comments (15)
I could actually see this occurring which makes it even more remarkable. Facebook right now is already home to your contacts, events, photos, messages (email), posts (texts), and data; so why not build a hardware layer on top of and inclusive of all of these things?Google, is undoubtedly eyeing Facebook but I'm not certain that even the masses can't see through all this. With online security and privacy coming into such scrutiny, both from individuals and the regulators, I'm not sure if a Google internet or Facebook internet will play out as smooth as both companies may hope. I also don't think Microsoft or Apple will take this lying down but what's really exciting is the different background of all these companies.
Really? I'd think it would be an Ad-Network based off of FB Connect or steal GoWalla or Foursquare's product and connect it with their user base. Then again? Maybe I'm over-estimating infrastructure investment...What do you think?
Last chance for #Nokia to get its Web act together? Hook up with #Facebook for a mega-userbase on social web and handsets.
Enjoyed this post a lot. And at the bottom of it is an option to share it on Facebook. Not Google.
Was thinking the same thing when I noticed the "Take Photo" button in the FB for Driod app interface. Where FB on BB gets a menu line-item, and on iPhone is a PITA that one needs to navigate from albums or from within FB, FB for Driod has basically skinned the native functionality as theirs. http://kwout.com/t/4bqmvt2jGood post, Steve - reinforces the idea for me that Facebook is Google's biggest competitor, not Microsoft.
What? A Facebook Peek isn't good enough? <smirk>
This same argument could've been made in support of MySpace mobile. Granted, handset usage has soared, but if Facebook remains an open site what would the benefit be to having a Facebook branded phone? Will it perform better or have increased functionality over what their iPhone or Blackberry app has? Can you do more than just surf Facebook (remember, iPhone users still play a shit ton of games and listen to music) as the site stands today? I can't see it being successful unless Facebook gets into entertainment... but wait, wasn't that MySpace's failed strategy? ;)
1. Facebook has to remain...Facebook. Not Twitter, not Google, ..Facebook.Why? Because Social is Social, anything else is not Social.That doesn't mean that apps and Features that reinforce Social ON FACEBOOK aren't valuable, they are. Anything that builds,extends, and upwardly values the Relationship is good, anything that takes away from the Social Utility of Facebook is...BAD.
And, yet everyday I come across yet another CEO who says: "Social Media has no value..there is no return on investment!". I can't wait to see these SOB's scrambling to "thow something up on the internet!"
If we're talking 2-3 years ahead sure. In the near future however i see a bigger/more natural opportunity with Facebook developing some sort of Skype-like functionality to cement not only its network of friends within the US but strengthen it's hand as the social network both in the US and abroad.
There were already two "Facebook Phones" launched over a year ago at the annual World Mobile Congress in Barcelona. Here are the two examples:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZOUNQPto_Qhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQpVCMLhzeU
#Twitter has the Twitter only Peek http://www.twitterpeek.com and I agree that it is only a matter of time until #Facebook has a phone of their own too.
In not so long time facebook will beat google up.
It just doesnt make sense. The value is in the network of friends and its app accessible across devices. Who cares about a damn FB phone?
it definitely makes sense!