Holy Moses, We're Bored and Out of Shiny Objects

Image credit: Moses with the Tablets of Law by Wally G

For the last several months there's been a ton of interest in the mythical Apple tablet. Just how much? Since July Google searches for the words Apple and tablet are up 400% percent and news reference volume is up 150%. Apple has said nothing so that leaves a lot of room for armchair quarterbacking, the latest of which is a thoughtful and intelligent discourse between MG Siegler at TechCrunch and Joe Wilcox. But there's a bigger story here: we, the early adopters, are officially bored.

Twitter is out of beta and nothing arguably as innovative is seeming to replace it - although growth maybe peaking. Facebook and smartphones have become mainstream. Everything else - even some significant innovations in the mobile computing space that I am sure we will see at CES - is being (incorrectly) considered iterative. And so we're left to debate the merits and need for the Apple tablet, a fantastic imaginary device addressing arguably a need and market that does not exist currently, except perhaps in our imagination.

Mind you, I am not saying this is wrong. I am am just trying to scratch under the surface at the psychology of the meme. Perhaps part of the reason there has been so much debate is that the economy has slowed the pace of industry innovation and so what's in front of us can't meet the expectations of a select, yet influential few - the early adopters.

So, we keep talking about the tablet in full view. The press therefore rightly keeps writing – the conjecture is a story too. Plus the occasional new rumors and opinion keep the the cycle going.

All of this is a fascinating study in the psychology of our times and how conversation drives the news and the hype cycle, potentially setting up everyone to fail given the outlandish expectations.

Perhaps only divine intervention will give us what we want, even if we may not need it.

Comments

[louisgray]

I am going to disagree in a nice way. We are not out of shiny gadgets. The new Android products are fulfilling that, as are the many new applications for iPhone. And if you don't like Android or iPhone, there's always the Pre. This run-up for Apple is... first, typical in advance of January (for what used to be the annual Macworld rally) made even more nuts because of the specificity of a new product line. This was fun when the Apple nuts used to be a small minority of us, but now everyone is interested.I believe the Twitter and Facebook and Google story is played out, so yes, you're right there, one of the major reasons FriendFeed's decline has been frustrating. But this release should be, like the iPhone and the iTunes Store before it, another straight Steve Jobs experience. People miss Steve more than they miss shiny objects... and Steve's been hiding a long time.

[Steve Rubel]

Louis, thanks, always thoughtful. What need though is currently not being met in technology that warrants such hype? It's almost like we're begging for Steve J and Apple to entertain us.

[Mark Nielsen]

There will always be a shiny object. And 2010's best shiny objects haven't been announced yet. But can't wait for CES surprises!

[Steve Rubel]

Great list. I hear the Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy are having a great laugh over this one down at the bar in Atlantis. You should post all these.

[louisgray]

Steve, I was working on it when I decided to give you a preview. Coming soon. Promise. :)

[Steve Rubel]

I figured it wasn't just for me.

[Brian W]

We have all been programmed to believe that our devices need to be replaced every 24 months. For the first year you are in heaven and then you need to spend the next 12 months thinking about what the next shiny object will be. In the words of the great philosopher Sheryl Crow, "It's not having what you want, it's wanting what you've got."These devices are meant for connectivity, but we're so busy connecting that we don't spend any time conversing and learning from one another. Social networking has to get beyond "here's what I'm doing right now" and "here's how many followers I have" if we're going to move forward. I don't really care how many people "like" or "retweet" my posts, I want to know what people think.

[theredheadsaid]

I think this post should be "I'm tired of Apple being the only shiny objects." Who's going to be the new Apple? maybe some competition could shake things up (it's not Google).

[Mark Nielsen]

Call it a shiny object if you like but I think different form factors work for different people. But in order for success the hardware NEEDS software which compliments the hardware well. My point is that a Tablet Market will fill a void and could even be disruptive to the Laptop business if software was solid enough. Between Touch, Voice and an on-screen keyboard; why would I need to have a full laptop beyond at a desk?

[Heather White-Laird]

I just finished reading "The Drunkard's Walk" (Brilliant!) discussing the random nature of success and failure, and it'll be interesting to see if Apple can continue to fulfill it's own hype/destiny, or our own expectations create the intended success. I say that as I type on my MacBook Pro w/ my iphone in my bag.

[Liana Lehua]

I'm drinking the same flavor of kool-aid, Steve. I know I'm bored with hardware and especially with Apple tablet speculation. I may consider what app developers are doing as glimmering but not shiny. As @louisgray points out, Android is an exciting platform. I appreciate that it is lovingly open. Personally, however, I don't see it as shiny.